It won't be repealed

I know I’m getting ahead myself here, because the bill hasn’t even passed yet, but I’m amazed at the noise people are making about repealing health care reform.

It’s not going to happen.

That’s not because it will be popular (and I think it will).  That’s not because a lot of people are all of a sudden going to find themselves with nice government subsidies to buy insurance.  That’s not because people on both sides will see it’s not the evil they’ve made it out to be.

It’s because it would be just as difficult to repeal it as it was to pass it.  Repealers would need (1) a majority of the House to vote to repeal it, (2) 60 votes in the Senate to repeal it, and (3) a President willing to sign the bill* to repeal it.

I suppose (1) is possible, if unlikely.  (2) is not going to happen anytime soon.  They’d need to replace at least 20% of the Senate,because NO ONE who voted for the bill will vote to repeal it; there just aren’t that many vulnerable Senators right now. (3) can’t possibly happen until 2013 at the earliest.

This is all theater.  I don’t blame the politicians for being politicians.  I blame the media for covering this seriously.

*Yes, I know that with a 2/3 majority in the house and Senate they could override the veto, but that’s NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

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