In 2011, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) actuaries made two predictions about the implications of Affordable Care Act (ACA) cuts to the prices Medicare will pay for hospitals services: (1) that they will cause 15% of hospitals to become unprofitable in a decade and (2) that they will be half those of commercial market prices by 2040. Recent work suggests that only one of these predictions is likely to be correct. A review of how hospitals react to Medicare cuts reveals which. You’ll find that review, by me, on the AcademyHealth blog.