From Health Affairs, “Little Change Seen In Part-Time Employment As A Result Of The Affordable Care Act“:
There has been speculation that the Affordable Care Act’s coverage provisions and employer mandate have led to an increase in part-time employment. Using the Current Population Survey for the period 2005–15, we examined data on weekly hours worked by firm size, reason for working part time, age, education, and health insurance. We found only limited evidence to support this speculation.
All you need are the figures. Let’s start with the adjusted probability of working in each weekly hour range among employed people, 2005-2015:
Can you see the incredible drop in full time work when the ACA kicked in? Neither can I. Can you see a big increase in part time work? Me neither.
You may remember that the ACA’s employer penalty kicked in when workers worked 30 hours a week or more. Many claimed this would lead many workers to be dropped to under 30 hours. Here’s the adjusted probability of working 25-29 hours per week for involuntary reasons, among employed people, by firm size 2012-2015:
Can you see the big increase in those working 25-29 hours per week after the ACA kicked in? Neither can I.
No one serious, including the authors, thinks that the ACA won’t have any impact at all on labor markets. But as for this meme? There’s really not much there.