The CBO scores the Ryan-Rivlin Health Proposal as saving $280 billion over 2011-2020. Future savings come from pegging increases in vouchers for private Medicare plans to GDP per capita + 1%.
There are many ways to attack or defend what the Ryan-Rivlin plan would do to Medicare and the health of beneficiaries of that program. I’m not going to do either (and don’t assume I’d go one way or the other–I do support private plans in some fashion).
All I want to ask is, why should I believe that voucher growth will stay pegged to GDP per capita + 1%? Medicare Advantage (MA) payments didn’t go according to plan either and they’re subject to the same political pressures. If the Ryan-Rivlin plan would save money we’d already be saving some in the MA program.